Modeling the Distribution and Spread of P. ramorum

It would be incredibly useful if we could know what Phytophthora ramorum‘s impact and distribution will be in 10 years, 50 years, and beyond. Where will the pathogen become established? Where could it become established if it was introduced and in what geographic areas and climates would it cause unacceptable damage? To answer these critical questions, several Phytophthora ramorum risk models have been developed for the USA, Canada, and California.

Humboldt County, CA Strategies for Control of Sudden Oak Death in Humboldt County—Informed Guidance Based on a Parameterized Epidemiological Model
João A. N. Filipe, Richard C. Cobb, David M. Rizzo, Ross K. Meentemeyer, and Christopher A. Gilligan
California Predicting the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in California (2010–2030): Epidemic Outcomes Under No Control
Ross K. Meentemeyer, Nik Cunniffe, Alex Cook, David M. Rizzo, and Chris A. Gilligan
Oregon Predicting potential and actual distribution of sudden oak death in Oregon: Prioritizing landscape contexts for early detection and eradication of disease outbreaks
Tomás Václavík, Alan Kanaskie, Everett M. Hansen, Janet L. Ohmann, and Ross K. Meentemeyer
National Koch, Frank H. and William D. Smith. In press. A revised Sudden Oak Death risk map to facilitate national surveys. Chapter 7 in K.M. Potter and B.L.Conkling, eds., Forest Health Monitoring 2009 National Technical Report. General Technical Report SRS-xxx. Asheville, North Carolina: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station.

California Risk Models

Support Vector Machines for Predicting Distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California | Paper (Guo et al., 2004)
UC Berkeley
Spatial Modeling of P. ramorum in California Information
University of N. CarolinaMapping the Risk of Establishment and Spread of Sudden Oak Death in California | Paper (Meetemeyer et al., 2004)
Sonoma State University, UC Davis, California Polytechnic State University

National Risk Models

Climate and Host Mapping of Phytophthora Ramorum (NAPPFAST) | Presentation Fowler and Magarey, 2005
USDA APHIS
Risk Mapping for Forest Pests | Presentation
Gottshalk and Liebhold, 2005
USDA Forest Service
Predicting National Susceptibility Patterns for Sudden Oak Death | Presentation
Hoffman, Hargrove, Hessburg, and Salter, 2005
USDA Forest Service
Modeling Risk for SOD Nationwide | Paper
(Kelly et al., 2005)
USDA Forest Service
A Refined Approach for Examining Phytopthora ramorum Risk in the Eastern US. | Presentation
Koch, 2005
N. Carolina State University
Hotzone GIS Analysis for Targeting Surveys for Phytopthora ramorum | Paper
Magarey, Fowler, and Colunga, 2005
USDA APHIS
Climatic Domain Maps for Sudden Oak Death | Presentation
McKenny, Campbell, Hopkin, and Lawrence, 2005
Canadian Forest Service
National Risk Model for Phytopthora ramorum | Presentation
Smith, 2005
USDA Forest Service
A CLIMEX Model for the potential establishment of P. ramorum in the Eastern US | Presentation
Venette, 2005
USDA Forest Service
Potential Climatic suitability for establishment of P. ramorum within the contiguous United States | Paper
Venette & Cohen, 2006
USDA Forest Service